Follow up my presence on the forex seminar i attended 4 days ago, i already trade using Hayabusa Scalping Technique for my trade since the seminar. So until today, i have been trying Hayabusa Scalping Trading Technique for 3 days. Hmmm… i still don’t understand what’s wrong in my trade because my perfomance doesn’t run to good. I still have a lot of wrong trade and i must hedge several position i’ve entered. For that, i decide to keep my trading journal here to keep remind me whats wrong on the trade. As i learned from theseminar, the rules of this trading technique are :

- Only Long when all secundo channels is upwards

- Only Short when all secundo channels is downwards

Entry Rules :

- Enter long/short at retracement of at least 2/3 line

- Use Pivot Support Resistanceto support the decision

- Wait until the appearance of Cross and Arrow marks from Strong Reversal Indicator

Here are my result trading using Hayabusa for 3 days :

Day 1 (27 September 2010)

There only couple of hours when all secundo channels were downwards. I mark it with yellow color box on the chart. After that, i waited for the signal (correction on 2/3 channel) to enter position. I got 3 signal that day. I mark them on the chart with number 1,2 and 3. The result are good.

Trade 1 : Profit

Trade 2 : Profit

Trade 3 : Profit, But if you place SL (Stop Loss) parameter to tight, you’ll got loss trade here. Unless you enter position when it corrected to the 3rd channel

Day 2 (28 September 2010)

There are two period when secundo channel is upwards / downwards on that day. The result for this day are :

Trade 1 : Loss

Trade 2 : Profit

Trade 3 : Profit

Day 3 (29 September 2010)

No signal on this day. So no trade at all

Day 4 (30 September 2010)

There are two period when secundo channel is upwards / downwards on that day. The result for this day are :

Trade 1 : Profit

Trade 2 : Profit

Trade 3 : Loss

Trade 4 : Profit

Trade 5 : Loss

My First 4 Days Trading Journal using Hayabusa Scalping Technique is a post from: Vendy's Journal of Life

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Bull still dominates the stock market last week. S&P 500 Index broke out above the upper trendline defining the falling wedge technical pattern. This should be a good signal to buy stock again. But i still aware of the volume on the buying. Buy signal can’t be confirm completely without confirmation of high volume on breakout. Let’s see the chart of S&P 500.

There are two perspective here. For the bull, we see double bottom and a broken falling wedge pattern. But if we see the longer timeframe, we can see that S&P 500 form a Head and Shoulder pattern. So the January high could be potential resistance for the index.

Now, let’s see from fundamental view. Based from Beige Book, the Fed still considers that the growth is slow. Nearly all economic indicators are showing improvement, but still not much.

Here some economic data.

There are positive growth in Housing and Construction, National Output and Inventories (especially Durable Goods Order, Industrial Production). ISM Manufacturing Index still above 50. It’s a good sign. Unemployement claims missed the forecast but still below previous month.

EUR/USD follow the stock market movement. It keep advance to higher level. It’s already broken the darvas box daily chart.

What i do in the Market :

On options, i will reconsider  to place some bullish vertical spread with tight stop loss. On forex, I still bullish on EUR/USD, but right now EUR/USD kinda overbought. So i prepare for the downtrend.

Weekly Analysis : Bullish Bias on Market is a post from: Vendy's Journal of Life

This May 2010 was recorded as the second worst May in the history of the stock market (The first is May 1940). The Dow was dropped almost 8% (7.9% exactly). Trader error and downgrade of Spain’s debt rating were the two most shocking thing happened this month. Escalating tensions on the Korean Peninsula triggered a flight from riskier assets.

One of big concern all investor see is the impact of a second slowdown in the global economy. Mark Matthews, equity strategist with Macquarie Capital Securities, tells that European banks will incur large losses on the loans they have extended to peripheral economies in Europe.

Based on the chart above, we can see that a major threat of second recession seems real. I don’t know how big the european debt problem will impact to the global economy.

Honestly, right now i have some put position on stock. The stock movements seems will be more volatile this week. Because i learned new technique (calendar spread) on option,  I reconsider to start scanning some candidate for calendar spread position.

On Currency market, euro slipped again today, showing its continued vulnerability to a broader sell-off on fears that the region’s sovereign debt problems could spread to the banking system. From the chart, we can see that EUR/USD already broken the previous low.

The above chart is H1 Chart, as you can see the support already broken. And the question is how low can EUR/USD go?

Let’s check the Monthly Chart of EUR/USD.

The support line already broken last week, the next potential target can be on 123.6% fibonachi level (the same level as previous low hold @1.6190). I trade full only sell position on EUR/USD today. I got some losses because i place the stop loss to close from the open price, but the total result of this day still good.

Just wish you all good luck in this new month. Happy Trading for all

Second Recession is coming? is a post from: Vendy's Journal of Life

The threat of Europe crisis is coming and spreading… Investors responded by doing panic sell on stocks all arround the world. U.S. consumer confidence does not seem have positive impact to the market today. Whereas U.S. consumer confidence rose for the third straight month in May to the highest in more than two years as concerns about the labor market continued to ease. Index of consumer attitudes rose to 63.3 in May, the best level since March 2008, from a downwardly revised 57.7 in April.

Euro Currency freefall continues. Today the exchange rate of euro against U.S. dollar reached 1.2175, almost touch previous low @1.250.

I only traded 2 times today. Both trades are sell position in EUR/USD. The result quite good. It’s 18 pips profit

Recent days, movements in American stock market were little affected by the sharp sell-off in U.S. stock markets early in the month and growing fears about European debt market turmoil. S&P 500 today will test support line (previous low) @1050. If this support line broken, than there a large possibility the bear will continue.

All indicator shown a bearish signal on the market. I myself don’t have any long position right now. And I have been watching some stock candidate to short. I choose stock which have high P/E among others. Here the highest P/E from Dow component

Be careful of your position and happy trading all….

Consumer Confidence soar, but Euro & Stock continue to slide… is a post from: Vendy's Journal of Life

What a crazy weeks. I kinda shocked to what happened in the market recent days. After suprised with 1000 point drops of Dow Jones Index, today i suprised again with the news of $1 trillion package to save euro. Both Currency and Stock move like roller coaster. It’s up and down severely. The best strategy to used in this situation is the follow the first big wave movement and take profit after it reached decent profit. I used this in forex market.

The first big wave of EUR/USD is a buy position. The result i get is not that good. I made 2 losses and the profit couldn’t covered the loss. But the second signal of big wave come again. It’s sell position on EUR/USD. My first trade is bad trade, but the rest are good ones.

Let’s see the EUR/USD Weekly chart right now :

As i mentioned in my previous post, EUR/USD support line will be at  1.2547 level. And it really rebound after touched that support line. The question right now is where the EUR/USD will go? There is 2 possibilities. Both of them is a downtrend scenarios.

On Daily Chart :

Chart on downtrend chanel, and it’s still on bearish mode. Personally, i prefer to take only sell position on EUR/USD right now.

EUR/USD back to selling mode :p is a post from: Vendy's Journal of Life

The European Union spearheaded a $1 trillion plan Monday to contain Europe’s spreading debt crisis and keep it from tearing the euro currency apart and derailing the global economic recovery. Central banks around the world joined the coordinated effort to prop up the euro and repel speculative attacks against Europe’s weakest countries. The European Central Bank buying public and private debt to shore up liquidity and lower borrowing costs. Many investors, rattled for weeks by the prospect Greece would default on its mountain of debt.

The euro climbed and break 1.30000 level. There is no signal to turning down at all until now. Just buy and you’ll make profit today. I already make profit from 4 position by buying EUR/USD today. But 1.3114 is a resistance to test for the bull to dominates the market. Let’s see what happen in the next hours.

This news have a positive impact to the stock market. All European markets jumped higher  (up more than 3 percent). Meanwhile, Dow Futures already jumped more than 300 points (more than 3%) before market open.

Because of this volatily, the stock & Options spreads right now is very wide. It’s very interesting to see what will happen in this kind of situation. Just be careful to trade. Happy Trading all…

$1 trillion package to save Euro. Buy Euro on this madness is a post from: Vendy's Journal of Life

Euro continuing its negative trends. This week Movement confirmed the downtrend trend that already formed before. Risk aversion spreads and pessimism surrounds the markets. The European currency cannot take a break. EUR/USD fell further and posted a fresh 12-month low at 1.2934. Viewed from the weekly chart, chart of EUR / USD break through its uptrend support line. So the next price level that can hold the movement is the next support at 1.2547 level.

While on short term view, there is the possibility of EUR / USD will rebound temporarily as part of the action of speculators take profit.

The concern right now is about Greece Bailout. Until the Germans officially vote in favor of the bailout package for Greece, the euro will have a tough time rallying.

Ok… enough for today, happy Trading for all

Euro continue sinking down is a post from: Vendy's Journal of Life

Yesterday is a very fortunate day. I traded just 1 buy and only place sell position on EUR/USD. The result is so good. Just 1 single loss from 13 trades. My win percentage now slightly up heading to 80%. Hope it will keep increase from time to time.

So. This is why i only place sell position yesterday. There are some very clear and good signal on the chart.

Let’s see from the H4 Chart

The chart on downtrend channel and touch resistance line. So the probability to be down is bigger than not. So i decide to take only sell position on this condition.

Let’s see once more on M15 Chart

It’s very clear signal. The chart crossed the Colar line and keep form the lower low and lower high.

Good Trading Day is a post from: Vendy's Journal of Life

Bullish scenario on EUR/USD like what i wrote in my last post didn’t happen. It keep declining into the last support line. The crucial point right now is at the support line on weekly chart and the daily chart

Weekly Chart

Can’t you see the uptrend support line on weekly chart? if this support line broken, the downtrend will continueDaily Chart

From Daily TF, it’s form a triple bottom pattern. If this support line also broken, that really confirm the downtrend

This week i got 2 losses from EUR/USD. But the perfomance still pretty good

Bullish Scenario on EUR/USD didn’t happen. Time for triple bottom test is a post from: Vendy's Journal of Life

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EUR/USD seems refuse to go down further. From my perspetive there some bullish sign on EUR/USD.

From Daily TF, the chart already break out downtrend resistance

Meanwhile on H4 TF, the chart form double bottom pattern

Bullish Sign on EUR/USD is a post from: Vendy's Journal of Life