Bull still dominates the stock market last week. S&P 500 Index broke out above the upper trendline defining the falling wedge technical pattern. This should be a good signal to buy stock again. But i still aware of the volume on the buying. Buy signal can’t be confirm completely without confirmation of high volume on breakout. Let’s see the chart of S&P 500.

There are two perspective here. For the bull, we see double bottom and a broken falling wedge pattern. But if we see the longer timeframe, we can see that S&P 500 form a Head and Shoulder pattern. So the January high could be potential resistance for the index.

Now, let’s see from fundamental view. Based from Beige Book, the Fed still considers that the growth is slow. Nearly all economic indicators are showing improvement, but still not much.

Here some economic data.

There are positive growth in Housing and Construction, National Output and Inventories (especially Durable Goods Order, Industrial Production). ISM Manufacturing Index still above 50. It’s a good sign. Unemployement claims missed the forecast but still below previous month.

EUR/USD follow the stock market movement. It keep advance to higher level. It’s already broken the darvas box daily chart.

What i do in the Market :

On options, i will reconsider  to place some bullish vertical spread with tight stop loss. On forex, I still bullish on EUR/USD, but right now EUR/USD kinda overbought. So i prepare for the downtrend.

Weekly Analysis : Bullish Bias on Market is a post from: Vendy's Journal of Life

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This May 2010 was recorded as the second worst May in the history of the stock market (The first is May 1940). The Dow was dropped almost 8% (7.9% exactly). Trader error and downgrade of Spain’s debt rating were the two most shocking thing happened this month. Escalating tensions on the Korean Peninsula triggered a flight from riskier assets.

One of big concern all investor see is the impact of a second slowdown in the global economy. Mark Matthews, equity strategist with Macquarie Capital Securities, tells that European banks will incur large losses on the loans they have extended to peripheral economies in Europe.

Based on the chart above, we can see that a major threat of second recession seems real. I don’t know how big the european debt problem will impact to the global economy.

Honestly, right now i have some put position on stock. The stock movements seems will be more volatile this week. Because i learned new technique (calendar spread) on option,  I reconsider to start scanning some candidate for calendar spread position.

On Currency market, euro slipped again today, showing its continued vulnerability to a broader sell-off on fears that the region’s sovereign debt problems could spread to the banking system. From the chart, we can see that EUR/USD already broken the previous low.

The above chart is H1 Chart, as you can see the support already broken. And the question is how low can EUR/USD go?

Let’s check the Monthly Chart of EUR/USD.

The support line already broken last week, the next potential target can be on 123.6% fibonachi level (the same level as previous low hold @1.6190). I trade full only sell position on EUR/USD today. I got some losses because i place the stop loss to close from the open price, but the total result of this day still good.

Just wish you all good luck in this new month. Happy Trading for all

Second Recession is coming? is a post from: Vendy's Journal of Life

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The threat of Europe crisis is coming and spreading… Investors responded by doing panic sell on stocks all arround the world. U.S. consumer confidence does not seem have positive impact to the market today. Whereas U.S. consumer confidence rose for the third straight month in May to the highest in more than two years as concerns about the labor market continued to ease. Index of consumer attitudes rose to 63.3 in May, the best level since March 2008, from a downwardly revised 57.7 in April.

Euro Currency freefall continues. Today the exchange rate of euro against U.S. dollar reached 1.2175, almost touch previous low @1.250.

I only traded 2 times today. Both trades are sell position in EUR/USD. The result quite good. It’s 18 pips profit

Recent days, movements in American stock market were little affected by the sharp sell-off in U.S. stock markets early in the month and growing fears about European debt market turmoil. S&P 500 today will test support line (previous low) @1050. If this support line broken, than there a large possibility the bear will continue.

All indicator shown a bearish signal on the market. I myself don’t have any long position right now. And I have been watching some stock candidate to short. I choose stock which have high P/E among others. Here the highest P/E from Dow component

Be careful of your position and happy trading all….

Consumer Confidence soar, but Euro & Stock continue to slide… is a post from: Vendy's Journal of Life

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As I had on my earlier post, May is not the time for holding the position of buy / hold on the stock. Research based on the seasonality Analysis of Stock Trader’s Almanac proves that the strategy of buying stocks in October and sold it in May proved to generate much larger profits than we apply the buy and hold strategy (ala Warren Buffet). I myself have been holding PUT Option positions in the shares. One of mine is the stock AAPL (one of my favorite stocks). Here is a chart of AAPL

It is interesting to see what will happen the next few days. The crisis that hit Europe and the continued fall of the euro currency to the dollar triggered panic selling on the market. Taking advantage of this moment, it’s good if we took a little profit from it. Good Luck everyone. Happy Trading

Apple ohhhh Apple… Let’s make profit on it is a post from: Vendy's Journal of Life

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The European Union spearheaded a $1 trillion plan Monday to contain Europe’s spreading debt crisis and keep it from tearing the euro currency apart and derailing the global economic recovery. Central banks around the world joined the coordinated effort to prop up the euro and repel speculative attacks against Europe’s weakest countries. The European Central Bank buying public and private debt to shore up liquidity and lower borrowing costs. Many investors, rattled for weeks by the prospect Greece would default on its mountain of debt.

The euro climbed and break 1.30000 level. There is no signal to turning down at all until now. Just buy and you’ll make profit today. I already make profit from 4 position by buying EUR/USD today. But 1.3114 is a resistance to test for the bull to dominates the market. Let’s see what happen in the next hours.

This news have a positive impact to the stock market. All European markets jumped higher  (up more than 3 percent). Meanwhile, Dow Futures already jumped more than 300 points (more than 3%) before market open.

Because of this volatily, the stock & Options spreads right now is very wide. It’s very interesting to see what will happen in this kind of situation. Just be careful to trade. Happy Trading all…

$1 trillion package to save Euro. Buy Euro on this madness is a post from: Vendy's Journal of Life

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Yesterday is truly the craziest day in the stock exchange history. It’s only happen about half-hours which began shortly after 2.p.m ET and the Dow plunge nearly 1000 points (S&P 500 plunge nearly 100 points) before up again to pare its losses. And all of these seems triggered by a trader error who entered a billion instead of a million for his trade. There still further investigation for this market volatility.

As we can seen together, yesterday is one of the biggest market drops in a day in history. The biggest one day percent drop in history was 22.6% in October 1987.

Let’s now, see the daily chart

From the chart, we can see that yesterday movement really volatile. It needs 2 months to rise and just need one day to come back at the previous level.

$VIX as Volatility Index soaring over 40%. Just see the $VIX index. It ignored all the resistance level

Severe drops in US Market yesterday followed by drops in another stock market arround the world today include Nikkei, Hanseng, Straith Times and JCI (IHSG)

The good thing is US Futures Market after closed remains positive. It’s slightly bullish, but we don’t know what will happen several hours again.

For the next fundamental view, major investor still concern about the Greece debt problem. The riots happen in athens showed the decision to repay the debt was not going to be made by the people in all Europe country, but the people in Greece itself and they’re not going to repay it. Any collapse of Greece could trigger a wave of defaults accross the world

Trader Error caused Biggest Market Drops in History is a post from: Vendy's Journal of Life

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We frequently heard “Buy on October, Sell on May and go away” senteces, right? I think all of you who bought stock on October 2009 and hold until today, you’ll gain some significant income. Entering May, we’ll need to be aware. Based on Stock Trader’s Almanac 2010, “Disaster area May/June” between 1965 to 1984 with S&P down 15 times from 20 of May month. But between 1985 to 1997, May is one of the best month in a year with 13 up in rows (average 3.3% every year), after that it up 6 times, and down 5 times. $10.000 investment will grow to $464.305 if we always buy on November and sell on April in 59 years, compared to loss about $1.988 if we buy on May and sell it on October.

If you want to know the detail of this data, i recommended you to read Stock Trader’s Almanac. It’s full of seasonality analysis to cover your fundamental and technical analysis.

Let’s see S&P 500 chart until yesterday

On Daily chart, it start forming a flag and ranging from . Just be careful on this movement. The RSI also indicates some bearsih divergence. It can be a sign that the bullish maybe rest for a while.

Goodbye April, We entering May (Time to Sell?) is a post from: Vendy's Journal of Life

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Forex Trade

After down about 2 month without rest, it seem EUR/USD on consolidation right now. From the movement pattern, there is more probability to be bullish for a while, even i think not to much. Honestly, i don’t like this situation, because i have to play fast on this non trending pair. There are not too much important economic data will be realeased this week, except Unemployement Claims on Thursday & Retail Sales on Friday.

Stock Market Trade

Stock Market continue to rebound into it’s previous high on 1148.  S&P 500 index gapped up and closed higher on Friday following a favorable jobless report released earlier on friday.

Although Stochastics and the RSI are overbought, but the sentiment remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. January’s high at 1148 is the next upside target. Index back to move above Moving Averages, so the bear beaten again. Let’s wait what will happen after index touches it’s previous high.

Happy Trading All

Sideways EUR/USD & Stock Back in Business is a post from: Vendy's Journal of Life

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Crazy Day. Yesterday was really really crazy. Currency surge unexpectedly immediately after the news of the debt crisis in Greece. I suffer some losses yesterday on EUR/USD Trade. This is the use of stop loss in our software platform. It’s very important to limit our losses. There is a quote said “Keep your limit small, and let’s the profit grow”. Yesterday, EUR/USD move 140 pips in just 25 minutes. Really sensational movement. Usually EUR/USD need 1 day to move 140 pips. That’s why i say it’s crazy

Because of this, i think there is some change on sentiment. The euro is still down about 5 percent for the year, but rose for a second day against the dollar as the outlook improved for Greece. Let’s see the pattern on H1 Chart on EUR/USD

It’s possible if the currency can hold the uptrend, the uptrend channel will be like above.

Strong spike in EUR/USD also followed by Stock Index. The Dow Jones industrial average (DJIA) jumped back above 10,000 on reports that plans are being developed in the European Union to rescue Greece. That raised hopes that policymakers will take bigger steps to contain debt troubles in other weak European economies. The Dow rose 150 points (almost 2% up).  Greece took steps Tuesday to calm markets, pledging to slash spending and raise fuel taxes.

Beside greece news, Stock Market also got a boost from Morgan Stanley’s upgrade to shares of Caterpillar Inc (CAT). It was Morgan’s first upbeat take on the stock in three years.

World stock markets have been tumbling in recent weeks on concerns that debt problems would spread.

Crazy Day of Greece is a post from: Vendy's Journal of Life

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Index seems to hold enough from wave of selling this Friday. But the chart seems to form a pattern that has the great potential to bearsih although still possible for a rebound.

S & P 500 has to pass through support in 1030 if the Bears want to win the battle
From sector what I noticed, seem Technology and Materials (Mining) led the market to free fall for several days.

Note the light green line (Technology) and blue (Materials)

Let’s see 4 Horsemen of Technology Stocks

GOOG – insist to break down the support line

AAPL – Still not Bearsih, Still on trading range. Thoughest one from 4 horsemen

RIMM – Bad one

AMZN – The support around 110 is the key

What about Materials?

FCX – Can another support hold?

RTP – Head and Shoulder Pattern?

X – Bear Bear Bear

NEM – Another H&S?

Stock Market Weakness. Technology & Materials lead the down is a post from: Vendy's Journal of Life

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