Some people asked me. Why there is no post about trading anymore in my blog? Do I already stop trading? The answer is BIG NO. Yes there are several reasons why I never write article or analysis about stocks, forex and options trading in my blog recently. First I have a plan to create a separate website specifically to discuss about investing and trading. I purposely made it like this because if i write all my posts in this blog, the contents of this blog will not focus to a particular topic. The visitor who does not understand about trading would be confused to read the articles about trading. Meanwhile, traders who want to read the articles about feeling a little disturbed with posts that had not related at all with trading. So, therefore for the future, I will just write something about my personal life experiences, blogging tips, and collections of motivational articles in this blog.

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Bull still dominates the stock market last week. S&P 500 Index broke out above the upper trendline defining the falling wedge technical pattern. This should be a good signal to buy stock again. But i still aware of the volume on the buying. Buy signal can’t be confirm completely without confirmation of high volume on breakout. Let’s see the chart of S&P 500.

There are two perspective here. For the bull, we see double bottom and a broken falling wedge pattern. But if we see the longer timeframe, we can see that S&P 500 form a Head and Shoulder pattern. So the January high could be potential resistance for the index.

Now, let’s see from fundamental view. Based from Beige Book, the Fed still considers that the growth is slow. Nearly all economic indicators are showing improvement, but still not much.

Here some economic data.

There are positive growth in Housing and Construction, National Output and Inventories (especially Durable Goods Order, Industrial Production). ISM Manufacturing Index still above 50. It’s a good sign. Unemployement claims missed the forecast but still below previous month.

EUR/USD follow the stock market movement. It keep advance to higher level. It’s already broken the darvas box daily chart.

What i do in the Market :

On options, i will reconsider  to place some bullish vertical spread with tight stop loss. On forex, I still bullish on EUR/USD, but right now EUR/USD kinda overbought. So i prepare for the downtrend.

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The movement of stock market last week was dominated by bullish movement. There are some optimism on the market because of good economic data and positive testimony by Bernanke. After corrected sharply to levels 1040, S&P 500 index bounced and continue to rebound toward 1091.60 level. The second support level I mentioned last week, apparently strong enough to prop up the index from falling further. For now, what deserves attention is the resistance level at 1105 as shown below:

If 1105 resistance level could be broken, the bull have a chance to fight back. For a while in mid-term the trend still tend on bearish mode, but if the index could continue to rise, it is not impossible that we return to uptrend sentiment.

Meanwhile, EUR/USD continues to rebound after broken 1.2000 level for a while. Judging from the trend in long term, the EUR/USD still on bearish mode.

In the Daily Chart we can see together that we’re still in downtrend mode.

What to pay attention for now  is the resistance level from upper line of the Darvas Box. While the fundamental trend of the EUR / USD still in bearish mode, that resistance level @1.2325 is the crucial point of EUR / USD. What investors concern for now is European crisis problem. Meanwhile, based on COT report for currency, big-players still dominate for long posision on USD. Of course, this is not a good news for the euro. So I think the EUR / USD still tend to decline, although there are a great chance it will continue to rise these days.

Here are the EUR/USD H1 Chart

Some headline news worth to read :

Japan at risk of Greek tragedy

Korea Unveils Steps To Ease Impact Of Rapid Capital Flows

ECB governor says rates to stay on hold

China data boosts world stocks euro climbs

Fed Chief Cautiously Optimistic about Economy

What I Do in This Market : I still play calendar spread position on option. Meanwhile for this week, i play scalping on forex. I play long and short position based on signal. It’s quite risky hold long position too long for right now, even the eur/usd keep climbing….

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Life can’t be separated with a thing called money. Some experts even said that 90% of divorces are rooted in financial problems.

There are six warning signs of financial problem based on Federal Deposit Insurance guidelines

• Loan payments, excluding mortgages, but including credit card charges, take up more than 20% of your monthly net income.
• You are close to, or surpass, your credit card limit.
• You must borrow to make payments on existing loans.
• You only pay the minimum amount on your bill.
• Lack of money is forcing you to pay bills late or postpone doctor’s visits.
• You must work overtime, or take a second job, to cover basic living expenses.

So…. Do you have a problem on list above? If you do, that means that you have financial problem

If you continue much longer on your present path, not only will you never achieve financial freedom, but financial ruin lies ahead. 23 percent of survey respondents said they won’t do anything differently, even if the economy continues to weaken. Hoping for the best isn’t a strategy. Many people are dangerously close to financial disaster!

So…. What you really need to do is changing your way how to making money to solve your financial problem. Have you read Robert T Kiyosaki’s Rich Dad Poor Dad ? If you haven’t i recommend you to read it. This book is one of my first book that really open my mind about financial freedom. Ok… From what Robert T. Kiyosaki said, there are 3 ways to make you rich enough to achieve financial freedom. Almost all of top 100 the richest people in the world make money using these 3 ways. What are they?

- Real Estate and Property

Robert even teaches us how to make money by buying property without any money. But that method can’t implemented to each country, because the credit interest rate in each country is different. But there some method to buy propety without money if you be more creative.

- Stocks, Options, Forex Investing and Trading

Warrent Buffet is one of people who getting very rich by doing this way. The disadvantage of this way is it need quite a large of capital to do. You also need to master very good financial and trading skill before can make some consistent profit from this field. The most dangerous part of this field is the risk of losing all your capital. If you don’t really understand about this, i don’t recommend you to jump in.

- Build Business

The most way which used by people to achieve their financial freedom is building a business. By building a business (not professional job or self employee), you really can achieve your financial freedom. Because of the advance of technology currently, i can divide this field into 2 parts. They are offline business and online business. The disadvantage of offline business is its need a lot of capital to do and the risk is quite big. What i try to build now is the other one, which is online business. Online business means that you built your business in the internet.

For now, i still works on second and the third one. Hope in the future, i can works the first way (Real Estate and Property) too…

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Ok … starting this week, I’ll start writing regularly on weekly analysis of the currency market, stock and other financial markets every week. As we can see together the last week was a horrible week for financial market. A pesimism dominates the market, while traders play some hit and run trading as mounting worries about the euro region’s debt problems. A strong rebound always followed by massive sell one day after that. Its happen both on stocks market arround the world and euro currency. This is usually not a good sign for economy…

Still same like what i mentioned last week in my post, S&P 500 index will test two major support (you can see on the chart below). But the price already on the first support line.

Based on $VIX (Volatility Index), i see some repetition pattern like what happen when financial armaggedon happen in 2008

In Currency Market, Euro falls to a new low and already broken 1.2000 level. Euro crisis drove investors to sell the currency and stay away from high-yielders. Investors dumped riskier assets and unwound leveraged carry trades, moving funds to the U.S. dollar and the yen, considered safe-haven assets in times of strife.

Daily Chart of EUR/USD

H1 Chart

Meanwhile, the euro’s weakness helped the U.S. dollar index climb to a fresh 15-month high of 88.50. The greenback’s gains came despite disappointing U.S. jobs numbers on Friday.

Yen is quite a bit defensive even USD/JPY and EUR/JPY down about 1% on friday. The Australian and New Zealand dollars were under pressure, having endured a big sell-off on Friday.

Some headlines news i concern :

- Eurozone faces ‘hazardous contagion

- iPad sales break 2 millions sales

- France fights to keep credit rating

- Gulf states move away from euro

- Canada raises interest rate

What i do on this market : On options market, i still try to learn and scan some calendar spread candidate. Seems this strategy is good even on this condition. I also place some PUT position on stocks last week. On currency, i still prefer sell position on EUR/USD

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This May 2010 was recorded as the second worst May in the history of the stock market (The first is May 1940). The Dow was dropped almost 8% (7.9% exactly). Trader error and downgrade of Spain’s debt rating were the two most shocking thing happened this month. Escalating tensions on the Korean Peninsula triggered a flight from riskier assets.

One of big concern all investor see is the impact of a second slowdown in the global economy. Mark Matthews, equity strategist with Macquarie Capital Securities, tells that European banks will incur large losses on the loans they have extended to peripheral economies in Europe.

Based on the chart above, we can see that a major threat of second recession seems real. I don’t know how big the european debt problem will impact to the global economy.

Honestly, right now i have some put position on stock. The stock movements seems will be more volatile this week. Because i learned new technique (calendar spread) on option,  I reconsider to start scanning some candidate for calendar spread position.

On Currency market, euro slipped again today, showing its continued vulnerability to a broader sell-off on fears that the region’s sovereign debt problems could spread to the banking system. From the chart, we can see that EUR/USD already broken the previous low.

The above chart is H1 Chart, as you can see the support already broken. And the question is how low can EUR/USD go?

Let’s check the Monthly Chart of EUR/USD.

The support line already broken last week, the next potential target can be on 123.6% fibonachi level (the same level as previous low hold @1.6190). I trade full only sell position on EUR/USD today. I got some losses because i place the stop loss to close from the open price, but the total result of this day still good.

Just wish you all good luck in this new month. Happy Trading for all

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The threat of Europe crisis is coming and spreading… Investors responded by doing panic sell on stocks all arround the world. U.S. consumer confidence does not seem have positive impact to the market today. Whereas U.S. consumer confidence rose for the third straight month in May to the highest in more than two years as concerns about the labor market continued to ease. Index of consumer attitudes rose to 63.3 in May, the best level since March 2008, from a downwardly revised 57.7 in April.

Euro Currency freefall continues. Today the exchange rate of euro against U.S. dollar reached 1.2175, almost touch previous low @1.250.

I only traded 2 times today. Both trades are sell position in EUR/USD. The result quite good. It’s 18 pips profit

Recent days, movements in American stock market were little affected by the sharp sell-off in U.S. stock markets early in the month and growing fears about European debt market turmoil. S&P 500 today will test support line (previous low) @1050. If this support line broken, than there a large possibility the bear will continue.

All indicator shown a bearish signal on the market. I myself don’t have any long position right now. And I have been watching some stock candidate to short. I choose stock which have high P/E among others. Here the highest P/E from Dow component

Be careful of your position and happy trading all….

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As I had on my earlier post, May is not the time for holding the position of buy / hold on the stock. Research based on the seasonality Analysis of Stock Trader’s Almanac proves that the strategy of buying stocks in October and sold it in May proved to generate much larger profits than we apply the buy and hold strategy (ala Warren Buffet). I myself have been holding PUT Option positions in the shares. One of mine is the stock AAPL (one of my favorite stocks). Here is a chart of AAPL

It is interesting to see what will happen the next few days. The crisis that hit Europe and the continued fall of the euro currency to the dollar triggered panic selling on the market. Taking advantage of this moment, it’s good if we took a little profit from it. Good Luck everyone. Happy Trading

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What a crazy weeks. I kinda shocked to what happened in the market recent days. After suprised with 1000 point drops of Dow Jones Index, today i suprised again with the news of $1 trillion package to save euro. Both Currency and Stock move like roller coaster. It’s up and down severely. The best strategy to used in this situation is the follow the first big wave movement and take profit after it reached decent profit. I used this in forex market.

The first big wave of EUR/USD is a buy position. The result i get is not that good. I made 2 losses and the profit couldn’t covered the loss. But the second signal of big wave come again. It’s sell position on EUR/USD. My first trade is bad trade, but the rest are good ones.

Let’s see the EUR/USD Weekly chart right now :

As i mentioned in my previous post, EUR/USD support line will be at  1.2547 level. And it really rebound after touched that support line. The question right now is where the EUR/USD will go? There is 2 possibilities. Both of them is a downtrend scenarios.

On Daily Chart :

Chart on downtrend chanel, and it’s still on bearish mode. Personally, i prefer to take only sell position on EUR/USD right now.

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The European Union spearheaded a $1 trillion plan Monday to contain Europe’s spreading debt crisis and keep it from tearing the euro currency apart and derailing the global economic recovery. Central banks around the world joined the coordinated effort to prop up the euro and repel speculative attacks against Europe’s weakest countries. The European Central Bank buying public and private debt to shore up liquidity and lower borrowing costs. Many investors, rattled for weeks by the prospect Greece would default on its mountain of debt.

The euro climbed and break 1.30000 level. There is no signal to turning down at all until now. Just buy and you’ll make profit today. I already make profit from 4 position by buying EUR/USD today. But 1.3114 is a resistance to test for the bull to dominates the market. Let’s see what happen in the next hours.

This news have a positive impact to the stock market. All European markets jumped higher  (up more than 3 percent). Meanwhile, Dow Futures already jumped more than 300 points (more than 3%) before market open.

Because of this volatily, the stock & Options spreads right now is very wide. It’s very interesting to see what will happen in this kind of situation. Just be careful to trade. Happy Trading all…

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